no one knows no one knows

Equivocating Economist Gives Forecast

Greetings, distinguished guests.

The economy is going to get better slowly. The economy is also going to get better fast. Or vice-versa. It will definitely be one or the other. Or something in between. It’s just an issue of sooner or later, more or less. The opposite is probably true, too …

The good news here is that the recovery is fully underway. The bad news is that the recovery will most likely take the rest of our lives. In fact, once we finally do turn the corner, we’ll still have to turn another corner, and then at least two more, only to bring ourselves full circle, a phenomenon we call cyclical. In short, the only rebound that will happen this year will take place on a basketball court. All signs point to that scenario, even though our mother always told us it’s rude to point.

…To be sure, the dollar is still weak, but reports have come in from Europe that it has started doing some cardio and eating more cruciferous vegetables. And though it’s already a given that the recovery is going to be jobless, it now appears likely it will also be shirtless and hairless as well.

My fellow economists have already speculated at length about the shape the recovery will take, mainly whether it will be U-shaped or V-shaped. My study concludes that it will be more like an equilateral polygon crossed with a trapezoid parallelogram. At no point, however, will the recovery suffer from the dreaded double dip, even though some noted analysts are convinced that a double dip sounds mighty tasty, like a dish you might order with extra fudge and whipped cream for your kids at Friendly’s…

In sum, let me be unequivocal here. All the pros and cons regarding the economic outlook will vastly outweigh each other. Most short- and long-term thinking will be revealed once and for all to be exactly the same, different only in duration. …

In short, no one really knows anything. Equally of concern, no one knows no one knows anything. And that’s just reality. Or pretty close anyway. Otherwise all bets are off. So take my word for it. Your guess is as good as mine.

:: Bob Brody, via mcsweeneys ::

somehow though, i bet he knows:

“I grew a strange, cinnamon beard” = a shoutout to this blog, right?


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